Democrat Emily Gregory defeated Trump-endorsed candidate Jon Maples in Florida House District 87, which encompasses Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach County. The 40-year-old fitness center owner won by 2.4 percentage points in the March 24 special election, flipping a district where the Republican incumbent won re-election by 19 percentage points in 2024. Only 29% of registered voters cast ballots in the race, with Gregory winning by just under 800 votes.
“We’re seeing a return to the [political] center,” said Gregory, who focused her campaign on affordability issues such as the skyrocketing cost of property insurance and healthcare. “I’ve never seen Florida as this fixed, ruby-red state, and we’ve seen a state legislature that doesn’t even attempt to tackle the kitchen table issues facing Floridians. They talk about how expensive Florida has become, how hard it is to make your bills, how people aren’t able to save. I attribute our victory to having responded to their real priorities and needs.”
The victory represents another Democratic gain in traditionally Republican territory, as Democrats have flipped more than two dozen legislative districts held by Republican lawmakers nationwide since Trump returned to the White House in January 2025. Fellow Democrat Brian Nathan also won in the 14th state senate district byelection, coupled with the election of Miami’s first Democratic mayor in 28 years last December. Trump carried the District 87 by 11 percentage points, making Gregory’s upset particularly significant.
“Florida is a red state, but there couldn’t be a better year for Democratic candidates who talk about affordability to run for office and win,” said Rick Wilson, a former Republican strategist and outspoken critic of Trump in Florida who co-founded the Lincoln Project in 2019. “Trump is profoundly unpopular in an area that he should be strong on, which is the economy.” A Reuters/Ipsos poll released last Tuesday found Trump’s approval rating hitting a new low of 36%, with only 29% of respondents voicing support for his handling of the economy.
Florida has been challenging territory for Democrats in recent years, with no Democrat winning statewide office since 2018 and Republicans holding 20 of Florida’s 28 congressional seats. Republican Governor Ron DeSantis has enjoyed supermajorities of 60% or more in both chambers of the state legislature throughout most of his term in office. The state has delivered for Trump in three consecutive presidential elections with expanding margins of victory.
“If Democrats can win in Trump’s backyard, we sure as hell can win anywhere across the country. Onward to November!” said Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin on social media. The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee is targeting hundreds of legislative seats at the state level in 42 senate and house chambers this fall, planning to raise $50 million to fund Democratic campaigns. The committee recently added the legislatures of Arizona and New Hampshire as lawmaking bodies ripe for wresting away from GOP control.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s target list for this year’s House contests features two Latina lawmakers, Maria Elvira Salazar and Anna Paulina Luna, whose support among Hispanic voters may be eroding. Another Republican target is Cory Mills, a 45-year-old army veteran whose suburban Orlando district has seen an influx of registered Democratic voters since he was first elected to Congress in 2022. However, registered Republican voters still outnumber registered Democrats by nearly 1.5 million statewide.
“You have to be very careful about reading too much into a special election result,” cautioned Kevin Wagner, a professor of political science at Florida Atlantic University. Conservative commentator Scott Jennings echoed similar warnings on CNN, noting the low turnout and narrow margin. “This is a small district, it’s a low turnout,” Jennings said, adding that people should be careful about extrapolating a relatively narrow victory “into what could happen nationally.”
An internal DLCC strategy memo issued late last year limited the party’s ambitions in 2026 to reducing Republican supermajorities in both houses of the Florida legislature. The November midterm elections will test whether Democratic momentum can translate into broader gains across traditionally red districts nationwide.