Democrats flipped two Republican-held seats in Tuesday’s special elections, with Emily Gregory defeating Republican Jon Maples in House District 87 in Palm Beach County and Brian Nathan edging Republican Josie Tomkow in Senate District 14 in Hillsborough County. Gregory’s victory is particularly notable as the district includes President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home. Republicans held House District 51 in Polk County, where Hilary Holley beat Democrat Edwin Perez.

Gregory flipped a district former Republican Rep. Mike Caruso won by 19 points in 2024, leading by 2.4 percentage points, or 797 votes. Trump had endorsed Gregory’s rival and won the district by about 10 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election. “My theory of the case was always that my neighbors wanted the same things that I do, a fairer, kinder Florida that works for all of us,” Gregory said.

Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried said the victories demonstrate the effectiveness of grassroots organizing over television advertising alone. “This is how you build back the party apparatus,” Fried said. She emphasized that national Democrats are seeing proof of concept when money is tied to field programs and building grassroots operations. “We’re showing the world that Florida Democrats are ready to compete everywhere. And if we can win in Donald Trump’s backyard, we can win anywhere,” Fried said.

The wins do not change control of the Legislature, where Republicans still hold commanding majorities, but they provide Florida Democrats with momentum ahead of the 2026 midterms. Florida’s Division of Elections reported 5,535,837 active Republican voters and 4,048,551 active Democratic voters as of Feb. 28, a gap of nearly 1.49 million. Despite this registration disadvantage, Democrats are treating Tuesday’s results as evidence that Florida remains competitive with proper organization and messaging focused on cost-of-living issues.

Florida GOP Chair Evan Power downplayed the broader significance of the losses, arguing the results should not be read as a preview of November. “We have seen this before; special elections are just that: special,” Power said. “It is not indicative of what can be expected in a general election.” Power pointed to Democrat Tom Keen’s 2024 special-election win in House District 35 before his later loss to Republican Erika Booth as evidence that special election results don’t always translate to general elections.

Gregory said the issues she heard most often on the trail were housing, healthcare, and education, describing voters as hungry for practical problem-solving rather than partisan theater. While her district now includes Trump as a constituent, Gregory said that will not change how she approaches the job. “I’m focused on all of District 87,” Gregory said. “I’m focused on every Florida family. I’m not going to elevate one constituent over another.”

Political analyst Dr. Susan MacManus said the results do not amount to a statewide realignment, but they do matter for Democratic fundraising and energy. “A monumental infusion of energy and momentum for Democrats in Florida,” MacManus said. She noted that voters “wanted some new faces in high places. They wanted a different kind of candidate.” Heather Williams, president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, said Tuesday’s race was the 29th seat that Democrats have flipped from Republican control since Trump took office.

Fried said the state party plans to continue pressing an economic message focused on the unaffordability crisis in Florida, moving away from relying solely on television advertisements. Power emphasized the GOP’s wider success in local races this month along with the party’s statewide registration edge, predicting Republicans would continue to shift the state red. However, one GOP insider offered a blunt warning: “You don’t beat a wave by sitting on the sidelines - you beat it by changing the tide. Republicans can either get to work, or learn to surf.”

The new lawmakers will be sworn in when the Legislature returns next month for a special session on congressional redistricting.