MIAMI - Hurricane Isaias is bearing down on the northern Gulf Coast with 80 mph sustained winds and a life-threatening storm surge of up to 7 feet, the National Hurricane Center warned Thursday morning, urging residents from Mississippi to Florida’s Big Bend region to rush preparations to completion before conditions deteriorate Friday.
At 7 a.m. CDT Thursday, the center of Isaias was located at latitude 23.7 North, longitude 90.6 West - about 175 miles north-northwest of Progreso, Mexico, and approximately 385 miles south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River. The storm was moving east-northeast at 9 mph, with a turn toward the northeast expected later Thursday and a northward turn forecast for Friday. NHC forecaster Pasch said Isaias is expected to pass north of the Yucatan Peninsula before making landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday.
“Preparations to protect life and property from storm surge and damaging winds along the warning area of the Gulf Coast should be rushed to completion today,” the National Hurricane Center said in its 7 a.m. advisory.
The storm’s minimum central pressure stands at 975 mb (28.80 inches), and the NHC said additional strengthening is expected through early Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles from the center, while tropical-storm-force winds reach up to 90 miles from the storm’s core.
A Storm Surge Warning - meaning life-threatening inundation is possible within 36 hours - is in effect from the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Steinhatchee River in Florida. A Storm Surge Watch extends from the Steinhatchee River to Yankeetown, Florida, covering a stretch of Florida’s Nature Coast that includes Levy and Citrus counties.
The NHC projects storm surge heights of 5 to 7 feet above ground from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to Indian Pass, Florida, and within Mobile Bay. Surge of 4 to 6 feet is forecast from Indian Pass to the Steinhatchee River, with 2 to 4 feet possible from the Steinhatchee River to Yankeetown. Lake Pontchartrain could see 1 to 3 feet of surge. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to the Bay/Gulf County Line in Florida - a stretch that includes the Florida Panhandle communities of Pensacola, Panama City, and Port St. Joe. A Tropical Storm Warning covers the Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish Line in Louisiana westward to Ocean Springs, and from east of the Bay/Gulf County Line to the Aucilla River in Florida.
Rainfall from Friday through the weekend is expected to total 3 to 7 inches across the central Gulf Coast from far southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, with localized totals reaching up to 10 inches. An additional 1 to 3 inches, with isolated amounts up to 5 inches, is possible across much of the Southeast as far north as the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas. Flash flooding, urban flooding, and isolated river flooding are all possible.
Isolated tornadoes will be possible Friday night in coastal areas of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle and far southwestern Georgia, the NHC said. The tornado threat continues Saturday for eastern Alabama, Georgia, and northern Florida.
Swells from Isaias are expected to spread northward toward the Gulf Coast on Friday, creating life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along Florida’s Panhandle and Nature Coast beaches.
Hurricane hunters were actively investigating Isaias as of the 7 a.m. advisory. The NHC said interests across the Yucatan Peninsula and elsewhere along the U.S. northern Gulf Coast should closely monitor the storm’s progress. The next complete advisory was scheduled for 10 a.m. CDT Thursday, with updates continuing as Isaias approaches landfall.