MIAMI — The Marlins’ playoff odds have cratered to 14.4 percent after a 10-game losing streak erased what had been one of the most promising stretches in recent franchise history, putting president of baseball operations Peter Bendix in a difficult position with just nine games remaining before the Aug. 3 Trade Deadline.
As recently as July 9, Miami sat 10 games over .500, three games up for the final National League Wild Card spot and on pace for an 89-win season after going 26-8 from June 1 to that date. The club’s playoff odds stood at 33.8 percent at the All-Star break. Now, every trend line has reversed.
“I have a ton of confidence in our players and our coaches,” manager Clayton McCullough said. “It’s been a tough stretch, but watching the game play out, still guys were competing in the box and going like they normally do. We’re not finding a way to kind of get over the hump here in certain moments in the game.”
The collapse is rooted in an offense that has gone cold with runners on base. Miami’s average with runners in scoring position has plummeted from .256 during the June 1-July 9 surge to .157 since July 10. The club has scored three runs or fewer in eight of the 10 losses, with 64.0 percent of its runs coming via home run compared to 42.4 percent during the hot streak. Both Miami runs Friday came on solo shots by Heriberto Hernández and Joe Mack.
Hernández matched Liam Hicks for the team lead with 14 homers. Mack became the fourth primary catcher in franchise history with 10-plus homers in his rookie season, joining Agustín Ramírez in 2025 (21), J.T. Realmuto in 2015 (10) and Charles Johnson in 1995 (11).
“I can [only] speak for myself,” Hernández said via interpreter Luis Dorante. “Every time you’re at the plate, you want to bring those runners in. But I believe that’s everybody’s approach at the end of the day. Maybe we’re trying to do too much, and that’s something affecting us.”
The pitching has slipped as well. Miami’s team ERA in the seventh inning or later has ballooned from 3.80 during the hot stretch to 4.85 since July 10. Right-hander Ryan Gusto, starting in place of the injured Max Meyer, allowed one run over 3 1/3 innings Friday, but reliever Tyler Zuber surrendered a go-ahead two-run homer to pinch-hitter Luis Rengifo in the eighth.
“All I have to do is keep pitching,” Gusto said. “Try to keep the team in the game is really the No. 1 goal.”
History offers little comfort. Only four teams have endured a 10-game losing streak and made the playoffs in the same season: the 2025 Guardians, the 2017 Dodgers, the 1982 Braves and the 1951 New York Giants. The 2026 Cubs are on pace to join that group.
“This is a very incredibly difficult game, in that it humbles you very quickly,” McCullough said. “I think we’re all just kind of going through this, and I know for myself, it’ll feel bad for a little while longer. But then tomorrow, the only choice is to come back out here and be as ready and prepared for tomorrow’s game to try to get us on a winning note.”
Bendix faces a decision before the Aug. 3 Trade Deadline on whether the Marlins more closely resemble the team that surged through June or the one that has unraveled since July 10.