MIAMI — The Marlins face a September gauntlet that will decide their postseason fate: 18 of their final 23 games come against clubs ahead of them in the standings, starting with a weekend series against the Cubs and running through a brutal nine-game road trip to Arizona, San Diego and Chicago.
Miami (70-69) sits three games behind the Padres (73-66) for the third and final National League Wild Card spot, but manager Clayton McCullough sees the schedule as an opportunity rather than an obstacle. “It’s a great thing. You’d rather have it that way, that the people that are next up are those that you can control your own destiny a little bit, say within a series,” McCullough said. “So, I’d rather have it that way. Competition is great. There’s not an easy series in this league, and certainly we’re going to need to get hot here and start winning some games, and you’d hope that type of sprint for a month would set you up well if you’re able to get in.”
The Marlins’ recent history offers a template. Around this time last year, the club was 65-74 and 10 games back with seven teams ahead of them in the Wild Card standings. Miami finished four games back and wasn’t eliminated until the second-to-last series, fueled by a stretch of 11 wins in 12 games.
Before the contender gauntlet begins, Miami wraps a series in Kansas City against the Royals (62-77), who have won 12 of 15 behind University of Florida product Jac Caglianone, who hit .411 with six home runs and 26 RBIs in August. The Cubs (78-61) then visit Miami for a weekend series — the first meeting between the clubs this season. Chicago sits one game behind the Phillies (79-60) for the top NL Wild Card spot, led by Pete Crow-Armstrong, who is making a strong case to supplant Shohei Ohtani for NL MVP. Former Marlin Edward Cabrera and Dansby Swanson are working back from injuries for the Cubs.
After hosting the Mets from Sept. 7-9 — Miami is 6-4 against New York this season — the Marlins welcome the two-time reigning World Series champion Dodgers from Sept. 11-13. Ohtani hasn’t resumed pitching, while closer Edwin Díaz, Roki Sasaki and Andy Pages are eyeing September returns. The Marlins won two of three at Chavez Ravine in April.
The schedule’s pivot point is a three-city, nine-game road trip that will be the ultimate chance to gain ground or bid its playoff aspirations adieu. Miami visits Arizona from Sept. 14-16, where pitchers Corbin Burnes and Zac Gallen are expected back for the D-backs. The Marlins swept the D-backs during a historic June, keeping the head-to-head tiebreaker attainable. The trip continues to San Diego from Sept. 18-20, where the math is harder: during a franchise-worst 12-game skid, Miami was swept at home by San Diego, needing a sweep to break even. The Marlins lost two of the three games by two runs.
Miami’s road record of 28-42 compared to a 42-27 home mark looms as the biggest obstacle. The Marlins close the road slate at Chicago from Sept. 22-24 before finishing the regular season at home against the Braves from Sept. 25-27. Miami is 2-8 against Atlanta this season but swept the Braves at home in mid-September 2023 under similar circumstances en route to the postseason that year.