Orlando’s affordable housing shortage has been declared the worst in the nation, with just 13 affordable rental units available for every 100 families on the extreme low end of the income scale, according to the National Low Income Housing Coalition’s annual report. The Orlando region tied with Las Vegas for the bottom ranking, marking the first time the coalition has ranked Orlando worst since 2019. The coalition considers the Orlando region to include Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and Lake counties.
“If you don’t own something here in the next four or five years, you’re going to be left on the outside looking in,” said Luis Amaro, who remembered when $1,500 could secure a decently-sized house in a middle class neighborhood. When asked if he was confident about his plans to buy a home for him and his son, Amaro responded negatively. The housing crisis has left many residents questioning their ability to achieve homeownership in the region.
For middle earners, the Orlando area had 82 housing units for every 100 families, representing the fourth consecutive decline. The region had 106 units per 100 families in 2022, showing a dramatic deterioration in housing availability for moderate-income residents. “We’re in this we’re in this gulf that nobody sees yet,” said Craig Ustler. “You’re sort of living off that really big amount of supply that came on a few years ago, but that’s largely been absorbed.”
Florida’s housing market challenges extend beyond Orlando, with the state accounting for 16 of the 50 most vulnerable counties in the nation for potential home price declines. In February, the median sale price of a home in Florida was $415,200, up 0.4 percent from a year earlier, compared to the national average price growth of 1 percent year-over-year to $429,708. The counties most at risk of facing falling home prices include Charlotte County and Saint Lucie County, among others.
The statewide housing correction affects multiple Florida counties, including Escambia, Santa Rosa, Duval County, Marion, Pasco County, Pinellas, Hillsborough, Polk, Osceola, Brevard, Manatee, Sarasota, Hardee, Highlands, DeSoto, and Charlotte counties. “Foreclosure and unemployment rates have been rising year over year,” said Rob Barber, ATTOM CEO. “Even as foreclosure activity normalizes, markets where prices remain high, foreclosures are rising, and employment is weakening may face greater risk.”
“Florida is enduring a long, slow correction period” after booming during the pandemic, said Joel Berner, Realtor.com senior economist. He explained that prices are moving back toward a long-run equilibrium as higher mortgage rates and growing ancillary costs of homeownership are turning buyers away. Many Florida homeowners unknowingly bought at the peak of the market following the intense run-up in prices of 2021 and 2022, and are now in danger of seeing their home value decrease as the market continues to soften.
High interest rates have held back the development of housing units, especially large, multi-family complexes that can offer relief to low- and middle-class families. Developers have warned they expect prices on homes and rental units to rise if the Federal Reserve makes another interest rate cut or two by the summer, which economists now consider less likely due to ongoing global conflicts.
According to Realtor.com forecasts, home prices will fall in all major Florida metropolitan areas in 2026, as they expect a year of weakness for the state. Cape Coral, North Port and Tampa on the Gulf Coast are expected to face the biggest projected year-over-year declines, at 10.2 percent, 8.9 percent, and 3.6 percent respectively.