MIAMI — The National Hurricane Center warned of potentially life-threatening flash flooding across the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, southern Mississippi and southern Louisiana as Potential Tropical Cyclone One tracked northeast from the Middle Texas coast early Wednesday with maximum sustained winds of 25 knots and gusts to 35 knots.
The system, designated AL012026, was centered near 28.0 degrees north latitude and 96.7 degrees west longitude as of 4 a.m. CDT, moving northeast at 5 knots. NHC forecaster Daniel Berg issued the advisory from the center’s Miami headquarters, noting the disturbance carried an estimated minimum central pressure of 1003 millibars — a broad, disorganized low that has so far failed to develop the convective structure necessary to earn tropical cyclone status.
The NHC’s 12-hour forecast calls for the system to strengthen to 35-knot maximum sustained winds with gusts to 45 knots as it approaches the upper Texas and Louisiana coastline. Tropical-storm-force winds of 34 knots are forecast to extend 150 nautical miles to the northeast and southeast of the center during that window. By 24 hours, the center projects the system will weaken to a 25-knot remnant low over Louisiana, with full dissipation expected by Thursday evening.
The prospects for the disturbance to become a named tropical cyclone appear to be fading. A line of deep convection formed over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico since the previous advisory, but 25 to 30 knots of westerly wind shear has displaced that activity more than 120 nautical miles east-southeast of the low-level center. The latest Dvorak satellite classification from the NHC’s Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch came back as “Too Weak To Classify,” meaning the system lacks the convective organization required for tropical cyclone designation.
The low-level center is unlikely to fully emerge over Gulf waters for any appreciable period, the NHC discussion stated, making it difficult for the system to gain organization before moving inland tonight. The track guidance shifted slightly westward on the latest cycle, and the official NHC track was nudged accordingly, close to the TVCN and HCCA consensus model aids. The center of the low is expected to straddle the Texas coast for much of the day before pushing farther inland over eastern Texas or Louisiana overnight.
All global forecast models now show the system opening into a trough over Louisiana by tonight. However, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model, the Canadian model and the United Kingdom Met Office model indicate a low pressure system could redevelop once the remnant low-level vorticity tracks eastward across the Southeast and moves offshore over the western Atlantic. The NHC said it will monitor model trends for the possibility of tropical cyclone formation over the western Atlantic late this week or this weekend.
Regardless of whether the system earns a name, the primary threat remains rainfall. The NHC’s key messages identified potentially life-threatening flash flooding and urban flooding as likely through Thursday across southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, southwestern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. The Panhandle, which endured significant flooding events during the 2024 hurricane season, sits squarely in the moisture plume the system is expected to push northeast across the Gulf Coast.
The system marks the first potential tropical cyclone advisory of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially began June 1. The NHC’s position accuracy for the current fix is within 40 nautical miles. An intermediate public advisory was scheduled for noon UTC Wednesday, with the next full advisory expected at 10 a.m. CDT Wednesday.