MIAMI - The National Hurricane Center issued its first advisory Tuesday afternoon for Tropical Depression Nine, a newly organized storm over the southwestern Gulf of America that forecasters say is on track to strike the U.S. northern Gulf Coast as a hurricane by Friday, threatening the Florida Panhandle with up to 10 inches of rain and life-threatening surf.
At 4 p.m. CDT, the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located at latitude 22.1 North, longitude 95.6 West - about 380 miles west of Progreso, Mexico, and approximately 630 miles southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Maximum sustained winds stood at 35 mph with higher gusts, and the storm’s minimum central pressure was measured at 1007 millibars, or 29.74 inches.
The NHC, headquartered in Miami, designated the system the ninth tropical depression of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. Forecaster Cangialosi, who signed the advisory, noted that satellite imagery confirmed the area of low pressure had recently developed a closed circulation, with associated showers and thunderstorms becoming better organized. The initial intensity was set at 30 knots based on a Dvorak classification from the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch.
The storm is moving east at just 5 mph and is expected to maintain an east to east-northeast track over the next two days before turning northeast by Friday. That track would carry the system north of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday and into the U.S. northern Gulf Coast on Friday - a corridor that includes the Florida Panhandle.
“Steady strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by early Wednesday and a hurricane on Thursday,” the NHC advisory stated. No coastal watches or warnings were in effect as of the 4 p.m. advisory, but the NHC urged interests in the Yucatan Peninsula and the U.S. northern Gulf Coast to closely monitor the system’s progress.
The rainfall threat is the most immediate concern for Florida. From Friday through the weekend, Tropical Depression Nine is forecast to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain across the central U.S. Gulf Coast, stretching from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, with localized totals reaching up to 10 inches. Flash flooding, urban flooding, and isolated river flooding are all possible, the NHC warned.
Before reaching Florida, the storm is expected to drop 2 to 4 inches of rain through Thursday across coastal portions of the Bay of Campeche, with isolated higher amounts possible in the Mexican states of Campeche and western Yucatan. Gusty winds are also possible in portions of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday.
Swells generated by the depression are expected to begin affecting the western and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula by Thursday, with the NHC warning those swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along affected coastlines. The NHC noted that rip current risk information for U.S. beaches is available through its online graphics portal.
The NHC’s forecast cone - the standard graphic depicting track uncertainty - reflects that the entire five-day path of a storm’s center falls within the cone roughly 60 to 70 percent of the time based on historical data. Forecasters emphasized that tropical cyclone effects, including hurricane-force winds of at least 74 mph and tropical storm-force winds of 39 to 73 mph, can extend well beyond the cone’s boundaries.
The NHC was scheduled to issue its next complete advisory on Tropical Depression Nine at 10 p.m. CDT Tuesday. Forecasters will continue to update track and intensity guidance as the system moves toward the Yucatan Peninsula and, potentially, the Florida Panhandle later this week.