PANAMA CITY — A tropical depression churning in the eastern Gulf of Mexico is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm later today as it creeps toward Florida’s Panhandle, prompting the National Hurricane Center to extend a tropical storm watch from the Ochlockonee River westward to the Mississippi-Alabama border.

Tropical Depression Two was located about 120 miles south of Panama City and roughly 220 miles southeast of Mobile, Alabama, as of the 4 a.m. CDT advisory issued by NHC forecaster Papin from the center’s Miami headquarters. Maximum sustained winds had increased to 35 mph with higher gusts — just 4 mph short of tropical storm classification — and the minimum central pressure stood at 1,006 millibars, or 29.70 inches, based on data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that flew through the system.

The depression was moving northwest at just 3 mph, a sluggish pace that threatens to prolong its impact on the northern Gulf Coast. The NHC forecast track calls for a slow northwestward drift over the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest or west that would keep the system moving near or along the coastline for several days — a track that maximizes rainfall and storm surge exposure for coastal communities from the Big Bend to the Alabama state line.

The tropical storm watch now in effect covers a broad stretch of the northern Gulf Coast. The NHC warned that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by tonight into Tuesday, and that additional watches or warnings will likely be required over the next day or two.

Storm surge is the most immediate threat for low-lying coastal areas. The combination of surge and normal tides could push water 1 to 3 feet above ground level from Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka along Florida’s Gulf Coast, and from the Mississippi-Alabama border to the Alabama-Florida border, including Mobile Bay. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast, and surge-related flooding depends heavily on the timing of the surge relative to the tidal cycle.

Rainfall projections add another layer of concern. The depression is expected to drop 2 to 4 inches of rain through Friday along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland areas from western Florida to the middle Texas coast, including southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana. Locally higher totals could reach 6 inches, with the NHC warning that the rainfall may produce areas of flash flooding, especially in urban areas.

Swells generated by the system are already affecting portions of Florida’s Gulf Coast and are expected to spread westward during the week. The NHC said the swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along Gulf-facing beaches.

The depression’s gradual strengthening trend is expected to continue. The NHC forecast calls for the system to reach tropical storm status later today, which would give it a name and trigger potential upgrades of the current watches to warnings. The system is not forecast to reach hurricane strength based on current projections, but its slow movement and proximity to the coast mean that even a modest tropical storm can deliver significant flooding and wind damage over an extended period.

Florida’s Big Bend and Panhandle regions have been battered by tropical systems in recent years, including Hurricane Idalia, which made landfall near Keaton Beach in August 2023 as a Category 3 storm, and Hurricane Michael, which devastated Mexico Beach and Panama City as a Category 5 hurricane in October 2018. Communities in the region remain sensitive to even lower-end tropical threats given the cumulative damage and ongoing rebuilding.

The NHC will issue its next intermediate advisory at 7 a.m. CDT, with the next complete advisory scheduled for 10 a.m. CDT. Residents in the watch area from the Ochlockonee River to the Mississippi-Alabama border should monitor updates from their local National Weather Service forecast offices for information specific to their communities.