MIAMI — Tropical Storm Bertha is bearing down on the northern Gulf Coast with 50 mph sustained winds, sitting roughly 110 miles south-southwest of Panama City and 170 miles southeast of Mobile, Alabama, the National Hurricane Center reported in its 4 a.m. CDT advisory.
The storm, designated AL022026, is moving northwest at 5 mph and is expected to shift to a west-northwestward track before turning westward by midweek. On that forecast path, Bertha will move near or along the northern Gulf Coast over the next several days, threatening a stretch of coastline from the Florida Panhandle through southern Louisiana with tropical storm conditions, storm surge and heavy rainfall.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from the Alabama-Florida border to the Jefferson-Plaquemines Parish border in Louisiana. A Tropical Storm Watch covers the Florida Panhandle from the Bay-Gulf County line westward to the Alabama border, as well as the area west of the Jefferson-Plaquemines Parish border to Morgan City, Louisiana, including metropolitan New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.
A Storm Surge Watch extends from the Alabama-Florida border to the mouth of the Mississippi River. The NHC warns that storm surge combined with the tide could push water 2 to 4 feet above ground from the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama-Florida border if peak surge coincides with high tide. Areas from Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka along the Florida Gulf Coast could see 1 to 3 feet of inundation, as could the stretch from Morgan City to the mouth of the Mississippi and Lake Pontchartrain.
The storm’s minimum central pressure is 998 millibars, or 29.47 inches. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles from the center. NHC forecaster Papin noted that some slight strengthening is possible later in the day, followed by gradual weakening through midweek.
Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area along the northern Gulf Coast by late in the day into Wednesday. The Florida Panhandle watch area could see tropical storm conditions later in the day, while Louisiana’s watch area faces those conditions by late tonight into Wednesday.
Rainfall is the other major threat. Bertha is expected to drop 2 to 4 inches across the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland areas from western Florida into southern Louisiana, including southern portions of Alabama and Mississippi, through Thursday. Isolated totals could reach 6 inches. The NHC warned that this rainfall may produce areas of flash flooding, especially in urban areas.
Swells generated by Bertha are already affecting portions of the Gulf Coast of Florida and are expected to spread westward during the week. The NHC warned that these swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along Gulf-facing beaches.
The NHC cautioned that additional watches or warnings may be required later in the day. The next intermediate advisory is scheduled for 7 a.m. CDT, with the next complete advisory at 10 a.m. CDT. Residents from the Florida Panhandle through coastal Louisiana should monitor products from their local National Weather Service forecast offices for area-specific guidance, including possible inland watches and warnings.