PANAMA CITY — Tropical Storm Bertha is crawling northwest at 5 mph about 110 miles southwest of Panama City, carrying maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and prompting tropical storm warnings and storm surge watches across the northern Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana.
The National Hurricane Center in Miami placed a tropical storm watch on the Florida Panhandle from the Bay/Gulf County line westward to the Florida/Alabama border, warning that tropical storm conditions are possible later Tuesday. A tropical storm warning — indicating conditions expected within 36 hours — stretches from the Alabama/Florida border to the Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish border in Louisiana. A storm surge watch covers the Alabama/Florida border to the Mouth of the Mississippi River.
NHC Forecaster Papin reported the storm’s center at latitude 28.7 North, longitude 86.4 West — about 170 miles southeast of Mobile, Alabama — with a minimum central pressure of 998 mb (29.47 inches). Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles from the center. “Some slight strengthening is possible later today, followed by gradual weakening through the middle of this week,” the advisory stated.
The combination of storm surge and tide could push water 2 to 4 feet above ground from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida border if peak surge coincides with high tide. Areas from Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka along Florida’s Gulf Coast face 1 to 3 feet of surge. Lake Pontchartrain and the stretch from Morgan City to the Mouth of the Mississippi also face 1 to 3 feet.
Bertha is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with isolated totals around 6 inches through Thursday along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland areas from western Florida into southern Louisiana, including southern portions of Alabama and Mississippi. The NHC warned that this rainfall may produce areas of flash flooding, especially in urban areas. A tropical storm watch also covers Metropolitan New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas, where conditions are possible late Tuesday into Wednesday.
The forecast track calls for a slow northwestward to west-northwestward motion Tuesday, followed by a turn westward by midweek, keeping Bertha near or along the northern Gulf Coast for several days. Swells generated by the storm are already affecting portions of the Gulf Coast of Florida and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
The NHC’s next intermediate advisory is scheduled for 7 a.m. CDT Tuesday, with the next complete advisory at 10 a.m. CDT. Additional watches or warnings may be required later Tuesday.